Bihar Election 2025 Exit Poll Seat Predictions by Different Agencies
The exit polls for the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 conducted by various agencies overwhelmingly predict a return of the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) to power, with the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) trailing and Prashant Kishore's Jan Suraaj debuting but not securing a notable presence.
Major Exit Poll Agency Predictions
Different agencies released seat projections immediately after the second phase of voting concluded on November 11, 2025. Here is a comparison of the exit poll results:
|
Poll Agency |
NDA Seats (BJP+JDU) |
Mahagathbandhan Seats (RJD+allies) |
Jan Suraaj |
Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Matrize |
147-167 |
70-90 |
0 |
Clear NDA majority |
|
JVC |
135-150 |
— |
— |
NDA projected win |
|
People’s Pulse |
133-159 |
75-101 |
0-5 |
NDA majority, weak Jan Suraaj |
|
Dainik Bhaskar |
145-160 |
73-91 |
— |
NDA sweep |
|
DV Research |
137-152 |
83-98 |
2-4 |
NDA landslide |
|
TIF Research |
145-163 |
76-95 |
0 |
NDA victory |
|
Chanakya Strategies |
130-138 |
100-108 |
2-3 |
Narrow NDA win; Jan Suraaj limited |
|
People’s Insight |
133-148 |
87-102 |
0 |
NDA majority |
|
P-Marq |
167 |
<100 |
— |
NDA landslide |
Summary of Trends
Most exit polls forecast the NDA comfortably crossing the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member assembly, with some agencies projecting as high as 167 seats for the alliance.
The Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD and Congress, is predicted to finish significantly behind, with seat projections typically ranging from 70 to just over 100.
Prashant Kishore’s debuting Jan Suraaj party is largely expected to win few or no seats, according to multiple agencies.
The combination of Nitish Kumar’s JDU, BJP, and Chirag Paswan’s LJP seems to have worked well, resulting in a united vote base favoring NDA.
Agencies comment that unlike the 2020 election, Mahagathbandhan's traction among youth appears to have declined.
Key Takeaways
The 2025 Bihar election exit polls point toward an NDA sweep, with predicted wins across nearly all major survey agencies.
Voter turnout was historically high, with the polling process split into two phases and a notable silence period enforced before exit poll release.
Final counting is scheduled for November 14, when actual results will confirm these projections.
The consensus among exit polls is clear: NDA is set for a convincing victory, Mahagathbandhan is expected to fall short, and new entrants like Jan Suraaj are not forecasted to make a significant impact on the assembly.
Party-wise Seat Projection Table
Below is the party-wise seat projection for the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 according to exit polls by several agencies, focusing on the main political alliances and parties.
Party-wise Seat Projection Table
|
Party/Alliance |
Predicted Seats (Range) |
Key Exit Poll Agencies |
|---|---|---|
|
BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) |
75-85 |
NDTV, Matrize, People's Pulse |
|
JDU (Janata Dal United) |
55-65 |
NDTV, Matrize, People's Pulse |
|
LJP (Lok Janshakti Party, RV faction) |
8-12 |
NDTV, Matrize |
|
HAM(S) + RLM + other NDA allies |
8-10 |
NDTV, Matrize |
|
NDA TOTAL (BJP+JDU+LJP+others) |
147-167 |
All major exit polls |
|
RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) |
45-53 |
Matrize, People's Pulse |
|
Congress |
15-22 |
Matrize, People's Pulse |
|
Left Parties (CPI, CPI(M), CPI(ML)L) |
10-15 |
Matrize, People's Pulse |
|
Mahagathbandhan (RJD+Congress+Left) |
70-90 |
All major exit polls |
|
Jan Suraaj (Prashant Kishor) |
0-2 |
NDTV, Matrize |
|
Others/Independents |
up to 4 |
NDTV, Matrize |
These projections reflect broad consensus among top agencies and should be seen as indicative, pending actual results on counting day.
